Housing Near The Bottom
Sarasota Real Estate News, National News, Florida Real Estate
The above chart represents housing starts from 1972 to now. Notice how everytime it dips below 1 million the market turns around?
Professor Karl E. Case of Wellesley College, one of the nation’s leading housing market experts, thinks the housing market is at or very near the bottom. His theory is that in the last three housing crashes (1991, 1982, and 1975) the market bottom was reached when housing starts dropped below the one million mark. In March of 2008 housing starts dropped below one million.
Case has been quoted as saying, “It is really remarkable how much where we are today looks like the bottom we’ve had in the last three cycles. Every time we’ve gone below a million starts, the market has cleared at that moment.” Every time that has happened in the last 50 years, it proved to be the bottom of a recession.
"It's bottom-fishing time, I think," says Mr. Case. "There's got to be bargains in Florida, Arizona and Nevada."
Finally, in an age of weak currencies and rising inflation, "real" or "hard" assets are in demand. That should include land, bricks and mortar. Sure, real estate isn't as cheap as it has been at other times in the past. But are Florida homes any more expensive these days than steel, or copper, or gold? I'm not so sure.
Date: Thursday, May, 8th 2008 @ 08:44:02 PM
Views: 168
This blog entry currently has 2 comments posted.
Vicki Walker
I think you will find many local markets around the country that are rebounding and will reinforce the feeling that the real estate market may have bottomed.
Although many think that the Davis, California Real Estate market may be unique, as a Realtor here, I can see the signs of activity that has picked up in the last 30 to 60 days. I provide more details in my Davis real estate blog. I have made two blog posts in the last month, one in regards to investors swooping in when the price point reaches 0,000, and the other about the recent increase in business for Realtors, Home Inspectors, Mortgage companies and Title companies in the area.
The question remains, however. Which markets will rebound first and which markets will rebound most? The markets that have seen the worst slowdown (Las Vegas, etc.)? Or the markets that went through the downturn with comparatively little hardship (Austin, Boise, etc.)?
It will be interesting to see. Anyone want to chime in with their thoughts?
Sarasota Andy
Wow! What an impressive chart........houses are affordable again for the workin man so prices will stop dropping.....It is that simple.